Newsletters

Corporate Newsletter – September 2011

Carbon tax winners

Learn which sectors and shares have most to gain – or lose – from the tax.

Photo of Victor Bivell By Victor Bivell, Eco Investor

The planned introduction of a carbon tax in July next year has already given a big boost to the clean energy sector, which was dealt a huge blow and is yet to recover from the Government’s failure to introduce the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) in 2009.

The share prices of most clean energy companies are yet to return to their levels of that time, but the sharp kick up for many when the carbon tax was announced means they are at last starting to point in the right direction.

Sharemarket history is full of industries and companies that have risen and fallen, developed or been held back, through changes in government policy. Agriculture, mining, oil, gas, and power generation are examples of key industries that have long benefited and still profit from government policy.

Changes in policy add another layer of risk to the market, which is why investors prefer governments to be consistent. Since the failure to introduce the CPRS, the clean energy sector has been asking for consistency and is hoping it now has it.

The Government has put its substantial policy and fiscal power behind the sector. Along with the carbon tax, it has introduced several major programs to speed its development: the $10-billion Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the $3.2-billion Australian Renewable Energy Agency, and the $200-million Clean Technology Innovation Program.

Between the carbon tax and the $13.4 billion in backing for these programs, the first message to the market is one of sentiment: the Government wants the clean energy sector to succeed.

The carbon tax will make renewable energy more price competitive with carbon energy, and the other programs will improve the commercial viability of renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, geothermal, wave, and biofuels. The market responded with an immediate jump in share prices in these companies.

Wind and solar companies

(Editor’s note: Do not read the ideas below as share recommendations. Do further research of your own or talk to your financial adviser before acting on ideas or themes in this story.)

Companies that currently provide clean energy and should benefit from the tax and related measures are wind farm developer Infigen Energy, solar and wind developer CBD Energy, and solar installer Solco. Another is fuel cell developer Ceramic Fuel Cells, which is at the stage of making its first sales.

Another group that can benefit are Australia’s two listed carbon offsets providers, CO2 Group and Carbon Conscious. These companies plant native trees to offset the carbon emissions of large corporations, including some listed companies.

Also anticipating to benefit is consultant Pacific Environment, which assists companies to monitor and report their greenhouse gas emissions.

However, most clean energy developers are at an early stage in their commercialisation and are not expected to become energy suppliers for a number of years. At present they are mostly speculative technology shares with a high level of risk.

That did not stop the environmental technology punters. The tax and other polices immediately spurred almost the entire emerging geothermal energy sector, which is aiming to produce zero emissions baseload power. Geodynamics, Petratherm, Greenearth Energy, KUTh Energy, Torrens Energy and Hot Rock all had big share price rises.

Other early-stage companies whose shares responded to the carbon tax announcement were wave energy developer Carnegie Wave Energy, photovoltaics developer Dyesol, algae-for-biofuels developer Algae.Tec, and waste-to-energy developer WAG.

Not surprisingly, almost all these companies have welcomed the carbon tax.

But there is a long way to go before Australia runs on clean energy and before these companies can turn into profit makers and dividend payers.

In the short term the tax must pass through Parliament; in the medium term it must resist Coalition threats to repeal it; and in the longer term at least some of the emerging renewable energy technologies must prove they can provide substantial baseload energy at a profit.

Australia is fortunate that its clean energy sector, while nowhere as big as it needs to be, is big enough to provide investors with a good range of near-term and long-term investment opportunities across a wide range of technologies.

Other ASX sectors

Obviously there will also be some losers from the carbon tax and some of them have already identified themselves.

The sectors that are unhappy are the big carbon emitters such as fossil fuel utilities; large steel, aluminium and cement manufacturers; oil and gas producers; and coal and other mining conglomerates.

But exactly how quickly or badly they will be affected is hard to tell at present, partly because there is still a fair amount of political rhetoric, and partly because many factors such as their taxable emissions, emissions reduction strategies and how much of the tax they can pass through, are still unknown.

What is certain is that the list of ASX companies that will pay the tax is not large. If we go by 2009-10 data of the top 500 emitters, it looks as though less than 100 of the 2300 companies on ASX would have paid the tax. And of those, only about 20 emitted more than a million tonnes of CO2 equivalent gases. Many of the rest have comparatively small emissions.

How it works

This is how companies will be affected:

The tax starts at $23 per tonne and is applied to what are called Scope 1 emissions. These are greenhouse gases released because of activities at sites such as a power station, industrial facility or mine. For example, in 2009-10 the largest Scope 1 emitter was power station owner Macquarie Generation with 23.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent gases. Also near the top was Bluescope Steel with 10.8 million tonnes, followed by Woodside, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

In the 2-3 million tonne range were Qantas, Santos, Adelaide Brighton, OneSteel, Wesfarmers, Boral and Orica.

By way of contrast, towards the bottom of the top 500 were Telstra with only 57,200 tonnes, Commonwealth Bank with 25,100 tonnes, and property group Westfield with 9500 tonnes.

With only one or two exceptions, these companies have very healthy profits and balance sheets that far exceed what they would have been required to pay.

However, simply multiplying the tonnage by $23 does not give an accurate picture of the costs and impact.

Many of the big emitters will receive some compensation to ease their transition into lower-carbon companies. And Bluescope and OneSteel will also divide a $300-million steel industry assistance package.

Another factor is Scope 2 emissions. These are the greenhouse gases that are created elsewhere but emitted by a facility’s use of electricity and heating and cooling. An example is the electricity drawn from the grid and used to run a factory or retail outlet.

The Government points out that Scope 2 emissions from one facility are part of the Scope 1 emissions from another facility. Although there is no tax on Scope 2 emissions, they will add to everyone’s energy costs as Scope 1 emitters seek to pass on the costs of the tax.

Therefore the cost of energy will rise. From our examples above, Rio Tinto had very high Scope 2 emissions at 9.6 million tonnes, Telstra had 1.3 million tonnes, Commonwealth Bank 407,600 tonnes and Westfield 328,500 tonnes.

But a clean pass of this extra cost is unlikely. Over time the power generators will reduce the carbon intensity of their electricity, and users such as Telstra, Commonwealth Bank and Westfield will reduce their energy consumption through efficiency measures.

Although working out the effect of the carbon tax on a company begins by adding its Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, the actual cost is much more difficult to arrive at because of unknowns such as implementation costs, competition in the energy market, the ability to pass on costs, the cost of carbon offsets, and energy efficiency measures.

Energy efficiency is the short-term goal and the Government has provided the $1.2-billion Clean Technology Program to help manufacturers improve efficiency.

Overall, as the carbon tax begins to work through the economy and corporate Australia, it will create some near-term uncertainty, threats and opportunities. But it is a case of no pain, no gain. The long-term result is companies that are much more sustainable, which is a big win for everyone, including investors.

About the author

Victor Bivell is the editor of Eco Investor magazineAccess free samples and articles.

From ASX

ASX Resources has useful information on investing in the resources sector.

There are also Listed Investment Companies that specialize in the resource sector and Exchange Traded Funds and Commodities listed on ASX that provide exposure to this sector.

The views, opinions or recommendations of the author in this article are solely those of the author and do not in any way reflect the views, opinions, recommendations, of ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691 and its related bodies corporate (“ASX”). ASX makes no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy, completeness or currency of the content. The content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Independent advice should be obtained from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment decisions. To the extent permitted by law, ASX excludes all liability for any loss or damage arising in any way including by way of negligence.

© Copyright 2011 ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691. All rights reserved 2011.

Property Newsletter – September 2011

I can feel a change in the air. Spring is finally here, a time of new beginnings and warmer weather which sees most people turn their winter frowns into smiles. Yet with global uncertainty rearing its ugly head again, will people be able to change their outlook and see the bright side?In this month’s issue of Property Wealth News, I’m going to discuss the situation overseas and whether back here in Australia we have anything to be concerned about. Other informative articles this month include the new anti-fraud measures introduced by Landgate, our take on the growing trend of sales agents becoming buyer’s agents, our hot property buy of the month in Rivervale, and more. If you’d like a no-obligation discussion to see how we can help you achieve your property investment goals, please call 1-800-000-159.
Regards,

Damian Collins

 


Investor Alert: Will Australia Suffer if Other Economic Powerhouses Collapse?There’s no doubt that the situation is not rosy in the United States and in some parts of Europe, and it’s making Australians feel uneasy about the possible fallout on our economy and property market. But is there any real cause for alarm?

Many people have been feeling uneasy with recent happenings in the international economy, in particular the situation in the United States (U.S) and throughout parts of Europe. Some worry that should affected countries see their economies collapse, Australia will go down with them and so will our property market.

Indeed, the situation in these countries does not look crash hot. They’re suffering from a multitude of problems from huge amounts of debt to slow or even negative economic growth, to high levels of unemployment and flat-lining property prices. In today’s highly mobile and interconnected world, it would be foolish to think that Australia would be completely immune from any fallout. In fact, just recently news about the deteriorating state of these countries shook our Stock Market, albeit temporarily.

However, we probably don’t need to worry too much. Why? Because Australia is just about the only stable and resilient developed economy in the world.

Yet with all this global uncertainty – now and over the past few years – Australians have understandably been concerned. But, we overlook just how good our economy really is and how we’re doing much better than the rest of the world. We forget that when the GFC hit in 2008 and many economies were going into recession, Australia was one of the very few that didn’t. We disregard the strength of our economic policies and our financial institutions. We gloss over the fact that we have some of the lowest unemployment in the western world, that household wealth is at near record highs, and that we have one of the lowest public (sovereign) debts in the developed world. If you go back in time and tell someone that this is where we would be after one of the biggest global financial disasters in history, I think they’d probably tell you that you were dreaming!

Australia has also experienced continual expansion of our exports and unprecedented growth in the mining industry over the past ten years that not even the GFC could hinder. Our ties with markets in China, India and other ASEAN nations are burgeoning while those with the U.S and Europe have been declining. Economic changes in these primary export markets will be far more important to Australia than those in the U.S and Europe.

Should the situation in the U.S and Europe grow worse, we must be realistic and anticipate some impact. But the effect will probably be small compared to other parts of the world. Additionally, we are in a good position to cope with room for another fiscal stimulus if needed as well as interest rate cuts to keep our economy afloat. Not many other countries have these fallbacks. The Stock Market may show some volatility which is normally painted negatively by the media, but on the flipside it can often be a positive for property investors. In such times, people tend to shun the Stock Market and look to more stable places to invest their funds which are typically gold and property. This increase in demand for property can turn around consumer confidence and lift the property market.  

In the short to medium term, assuming the global situation stays much the same, I expect Australians will continue to remain cautious. This is evident with Australians saving at the highest rates they have in years. People will continue to sit and wait, delaying expenditure wherever possible. The good news is that any talk of rate rises should become a distant memory. The futures market is anticipating that by the end of the year the cash rate will drop to around 4.0% and drop further still to 3.5% by June next year. This will certainly help improve consumer confidence and spending and in turn our economy. The longer term is harder to predict as it will depend to some degree on the state of the global economy but in particular our main trading partners China and India. I expect though that any negative effects will be more ripples than waves, and that the property market will improve with low vacancy rates and rising rents, while low interest rates will continue to attract more investors back into the market.

Although we may not be entirely shielded from the poor economic performance of some developed nations around the world, I am confident that if any country can power through it Australia can. I know there’s no other place I’d rather live right now.

 


Acquisitions: Buyers’ Agents vs Sales Agents Buyers’ agents are becoming more common these days with many suburban sales agents now even offering dedicated buyers’ agents in-house. So how is a buyers’ agent different to a sales agent and what should you consider before appointing one?

The popularity of buyers’ agents has increased in Western Australia over the past few years. So much so, that many suburban sales agents are now turning their sales staff into dedicated buyers’ agents for their office. With this new trend occurring in what is still a relatively unfamiliar area for many, questions are being raised about the role of a buyers’ agent and how they differ to a sales agent.

Buyers’ agents search, evaluate and negotiate the purchase of a property on behalf of a buyer, or they can commence work from the negotiation stage only if a buyer has already located a property. The primary difference between a buyers’ agent and a traditional sales agent all comes down to who each party represents. A sales agent is employed to work for the vendor (the seller) and is legally obligated to act in the vendor’s best interests at all times.  On the contrary, a buyers’ agent is legally appointed to work exclusively for the buyer.

So is there any difference between a buyers’ agent working in a suburban sales agency, versus a buyers’ agent operating in an independent buyers’ agency? We believe there is and there are a few key differences which investors should seriously consider when making their choice.

Firstly, buyers’ agents in suburban sales offices are usually very locally driven. They have excellent knowledge of the typical suburbs their office services but tend to be more limited when it comes to suburbs outside their catchment area. If they stick to their usual area, buyers need to consider that the small set of suburbs they happen to service may not offer the best performing investments going around. If they do look further afield, there’s a risk their limited knowledge may be no better than your own.

Secondly, a buyers’ agent working in a sales agency (particularly if the buyers’ agent’s recent history is as a sales agent) may not have as much of an investor focus.  They may genuinely want to help, but not have the knowledge or initiative to ensure they can. For example, independent buyers’ agents have a variety of legally compliant clauses to insert in purchase contracts to protect the buyers’ interests. They are also strong negotiators for buyers and have ample experience to easily manage situations such as holding back money from the seller for repairs and other issues that may be uncovered.

Thirdly, buyers should be aware that all agents are legally obligated not to act for, or accept, payment from both parties in a transaction (eg. the seller and buyer). This is because it could give rise to a serious conflict of interest where buyers’ agents push buyers towards only properties in which they’re also receiving a sales commission from. Therefore, there is no advantage to choosing a buyers’ agent in a local suburban agency as they can not buy properties for the buyer that are listed with their own agency. If they do, it’s likely they will not ask for payment from the buyer. However, that does mean they are then legally obligated to do what’s best for the seller – not the buyer.

And last but not least, sales agents and their agencies may be fantastic at selling and in knowing their local areas, but not necessarily as knowledgeable when it comes to identifying what makes a sound investment for purchase and in knowing what is right for you. For example, do they understand the taxation system with regards to property investment? Can they accurately estimate renovation costs? Can they undertake a feasibility study for a proposed development site? In other words, a great salesman doesn’t necessarily make a great investor or buyers’ agent.

If you’re thinking of buying an investment property, a buyers’ agent can be worth their weight in gold. They can not only save you the legwork, but save you money on the initial buy, save you tax, and secure you an investment that pays excellent dividends for years to come. But be aware, not all buyers’ agents are the same. The wrong choice of buyers’ agent could leave you saving little money and stuck with an investment that consistently underperforms throughout its lifetime.

 


Current Property News: Market Commentary Tighter security to protect property of home owners overseas 

After Nigerian scammers pocketed the proceeds of at least two property sales without the owner’s knowledge, Landgate has finally stepped in to bump up security in an effort to protect homeowners overseas.

After a number of Perth property owners found their properties were sold without their knowledge while overeseas, WA Lands Minister Brendon Grylls has finally stepped in to protect absent home owners.

New anti-fraud measures introduced by Landgate now require all property transfers executed from oversees to undergo a 100 point identity check with signatures witnessed by an Australian Consular officer, and verification by at least two senior Landgate officers.

Property owners can also pay $160 to lodge a new caveat on their property to prevent registration of any change of ownership, mortgage or lease. The caveat can only be removed by attending Landgate’s office in person and undergoing a 100 point identity check, said Mr Grylls. 

These changes come after one Perth property owner lost their investment property in Karrinyup last year to scammers based in Nigeria, and just weeks after investigations began into another property sale in Ballajura which also occurred without the owner’s knowledge.

Landgate is also considering offering email alerts through its TitleWatch service to notify homeowners of any activity on the title deeds of nominated properties. This notice is designed to occur prior to settlement and the transfer of any title.

Mr Grylls commented, “While no-one can completely eliminate fraud, Landgate is working with industry to minimise the likelihood of further occurrences.”

Landgate will now be reviewing all property transactions since September 13 last year, which could amount to more than 200,000 transactions.

RBA Update 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has again left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens commented that whilst the global economy is facing uncertainty, “Prices for key Australian commodities have remained very high thus far, with growth in China continuing to look solid. As a result, Australia’s terms of trade are now at very high levels and national income has been growing strongly.” 

Mr Stevens went on to say that, “Investment in the resources sector is picking up very strongly and some related service sectors are enjoying better than average conditions. In other sectors, cautious behaviour by households and the high level of the exchange rate are having a noticeable dampening effect. The impetus from earlier Australian Government spending programs is now also abating, as had been intended. Overall, the near-term growth outlook continues to look somewhat weaker than was expected a few months ago. Beyond the near term, growth is still likely to be at trend or higher, unless the world economic outlook continues to deteriorate.” 

The Futures market is forecasting a 1.5% rate cut over the next eight months.

 


Hot Property Overview:

Just a few months ago, a client from a country town outside of Perth approached buyers agent Andrew Gill to help him and his family select their first investment property in Perth.

Andrew focused on the suburb of Rivervale as it had strong fundamentals and a history of solid performance that was anticipated to improve even further with the revitalisation occuring in the area. He found an ideal property to suit the client’s needs, a well-maintained 3×2 street front villa on a quiet street. 

Upon finding the property, Andrew placed a well considered offer on the eve of a long weekend. Upon finding out the vendor was in need of a quick sale, Andrew negotiated hard and was able to secure the property under market value and well under the asking price. As Andrew’s client was also from out of town, Andrew astutely included a clause that allowed the client the opportunity to personally view the property the following week and if not satisfied, simply walk away from the deal. On the Monday public holiday, Andrew and finance broker Elizabeth Rutten (the client was also organising their finance through Momentum Wealth) met the client first thing in the morning at the property and with the client’s tick of approval, all proceeded as planned. The client also chose Momentum Wealth to manage their property once settled and property manager Bianca Patterson was able to promptly secure tenants for a higher weekly rate than first anticipated.

Result:

Purchase of a street front 3×2 brick and tile home in Rivervale, 5km from Perth CBD.

Purchase price: $458,000

Estimated market value at time of purchase: $480,000 – $490,000

Savings: $22,000 – $32,000

Finance News – September 2011

How’s your Mortgage?

There have been lots of changes in the finance industry over the last few months. Are you up to date with rates, fees, charges and the new rules regarding discharge fee bans?

Looks like rates are on the way down, as many banks are rapidly reducing their fixed rates (for example, 6.34% fixed for 2 years).  This is usually followed by lowering of variable rates. A quick assessment of your current position with a mortgage broker can make sure you are taking advantage of the new rates environment. New government regulation in regards to switching make it easier and cheaper to change banks if you can get a better deal somewhere other than your current bank.

If you are not sure if or how any of the above may apply to you, an obligation free assessment with a mortgage broker will show you any potential savings. Mortgage broker services are free of charge.

Call Dan goodridge on 0414423340 or or e-mail dg@iinet.net.au at Mercia Finance  if you require any type of finance information.

Newsletter – September 2011

Carbon tax to commence on 1 July 2012

The Prime Minister has announced details of the Government’s plans to put a price on carbon. The plan, to commence on 1 July 2012, proposes to set a price of $23 for each tonne of carbon pollution released into the atmosphere by Australia’s biggest polluters. It is proposed that around 500 businesses will be required to pay for their pollution under the carbon pricing mechanism. The Prime Minister also announced tax cuts to assist households and support measures for businesses to assist them in adapting to the new carbon tax. 

TIP: Although the carbon tax scheme will not commence until next year, businesses should consider how they may be affected both directly and indirectly by the scheme and whether they are able to access some of the compensation and support measures announced as part of the scheme. Please contact our office for any assistance.

Government set on countering phoenix activities

The Government has proposed tax law changes to counter fraudulent phoenix activities by company directors. Such activities involve the deliberate liquidation of a company to avoid paying tax liabilities and employee superannuation. The business then “rises” again and continues operations controlled by the same person, but under another corporate entity and free of debts. The proposed tax law changes include making directors personally liable for unpaid employee superannuation, and allowing the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) to pursue directors where certain tax debts remain unpaid and unreported three months after the due day.

TIP: The changes would place additional pressure on directors to ensure that their company’s tax risk management policies and systems are up-to-date. It should also be noted that the ATO, as part of its Compliance Program for this year, intends to detect potential phoenix activities sooner through a targeted program of reviews and audits of directors.

New restrictions on SMSF investment in artworks

New regulations have been made to prevent self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF) trustees from gaining current day benefit from an investment in collectables and other personal use assets, for example artwork, jewellery, antiques, coins and stamps, wine or spirits and motor vehicles. The regulations are designed to ensure such investments are made for genuine retirement income purposes only.

TIP: The new regulations commenced on 1 July 2011, however, there is a five-year transitional period for assets that were held by an SMSF as at 30 June 2011. Please contact our office if you have any questions.

Income test for private health insurance rebate

The Government is again attempting to pass legislation to give effect to the 2009–2010 Federal Budget announcement to income test the 30% private health insurance rebate by introducing three new “Private Health Insurance Incentive Tiers”. The changes propose to reduce the amount of private health insurance rebate an eligible person with a complying private health insurance policy is entitled to when that person has income for surcharge purposes above the relevant Medicare levy surcharge threshold. If enacted, the changes are proposed to apply from 1 January 2012.

TIP: The income thresholds which would trigger application of the proposed changes need to be carefully noted. Please contact our office for any assistance.

Tax discount on interest income

The Government has released details on how it will implement its 2010–2011 Federal Budget proposal to provide individuals with a 50% tax discount on interest income from 1 July 2012. Under the proposal, the discount will apply on up to $500 of interest earned on deposits held with any bank, building society or credit union, as well as bonds, debentures or annuity products. The Government proposes to increase the $500 amount to $1,000 from 1 July 2013 onwards.

TIP: Some of the technical details of the Government’s proposed tax discount on interest income are complex. Please contact our office if you have any questions.

ATO targets FBT avoidance using employee share trusts

The ATO has warned taxpayers of an arrangement whereby effective after-tax benefits are provided to employees without a corresponding fringe benefits tax (FBT) liability to the employer. Under the arrangement, employees acquire share units in an employee share trust, which is funded by a loan from the trustee, which is in turn repaid by the employer from amounts salary sacrificed by the employee; however, the employer does not include the taxable value of the benefits provided as part of its FBT liability. The ATO says failure to include the benefit may trigger specific “anti-avoidance” rules under the FBT law.

No GST on damages paid for lost scaffolding

A taxpayer has been successful before the Federal Court in obtaining orders that there is no GST payable on damages it recovered when it lost its scaffolding to other parties. The taxpayer was in the business of hiring out its scaffolding in the building and construction industry. However, after various events, the scaffolding became intermingled with scaffolding belonging to another company. The taxpayer sued and won damages for the loss of its scaffolding. However, the Commissioner claimed GST was payable as a result of the ownership of the scaffolding vesting in the defendant. The Federal Court though disagreed and held the taxpayer in the circumstances did not make a “taxable supply” under the GST law. (Note the Commissioner has appealed against the decision to the Full Federal Court.)

Division 7A benchmark interest rate

The ATO has advised that, for the income year that commenced on 1 July 2011, the benchmark interest rate to be used in calculating the interest component on the repayment of a private company loan received by a shareholder (or the associate of the shareholder) is 7.8%.

Reasonable travel and meal allowance amounts

The ATO has announced the amounts the Commissioner considers are reasonable for the 
2011–2012 income year in relation to claims made for: overtime meal allowance expenses; domestic travel allowance expenses; travel allowance expenses for employee truck drivers; and overseas travel allowance expenses.

Car depreciation limit and luxury car tax threshold

The ATO has released the following limits and thresholds for the 2011–2012 income year:

  • car depreciation limit and luxury car tax threshold – $57,466;
  • fuel efficient car limit – $75,375.

Property Newsletter August 2011

There is a lot happening in the Perth property market that all investors should be aware of so I thought it would be an opportune time to let you know exactly what is happening and how you may be affected.

Prices – rising, falling or some of both?

It’s very easy to get caught up in a “one size fits all” approach to property investing. A lot of the headlines you see in newspapers and on television reflect what is happening nationally. The Australian property market is really a collection of thousands of sub markets across the country. While some of the major cities are suffering an inevitable slowdown after periods of solid growth (e.g. Melbourne), other cities, such as Perth are moving into an upturn as the mining boom Mark 2 takes off.

Even within a city there are varying submarkets. In Perth for example, you may hear that the market is oversupplied. That is generally true in some areas. We see that the outer fringes are still significantly oversupplied with excess stock built in the last boom, meaning prices have dropped or have stagnated for a long period of time. At the same time, in the areas we have identified for strong growth over the next few years, we have seen more competition for properties, meaning prices are still holding, and we expect them to rise first as we enter the next market upturn.

Where is the market heading in the next 12 months?

The Perth property market has historically lagged behind the major cities on the east coast by a few years. In 2001 – 2003 Sydney and Melbourne boomed while Perth grew at much lower rates. Once the boom in those cities ended, investors turned their attention to the Perth property market and Perth had a property boom from 2004 – 2007. Since 2007, the Perth market has been generally flat on average, whereas Sydney has performed well and Melbourne has had substantial growth. Both of those markets are now cooling.

We expect the trend to continue and see Perth as the outperformer while other cities have their slowdown. While we won’t see any significant headline capital growth in the market as a whole due to the oversupply in some areas, we will see good quality properties in great locations return some reasonable capital growth over the next 12 months.

Where is the market heading in the next 3 to 10 years?

The outlook for Perth is very strong over the next 3 to 10 years. With the strong growth in the resources market, meaning more jobs and more income, it is inevitable that Perth property prices will be strong. Recently, other respected economic forecasters have predicted the Perth property market will generate the highest capital growth over the next 3 years and 10 years also.

Is obtaining finance becoming easier?

There is no doubt that finance is harder to obtain than it was in the periods before the GFC. Many lenders tightened their lending criteria once the GFC hit and the introduction of responsible lending and National Consumer Credit laws has seen further changes. However in recent months, lenders have begun to loosen up and credit is definitely easier to obtain than it was two years ago, albeit not anywhere near as easy as it was before the GFC.

The tightening of credit may have impacted some borrowers, however for the vast majority, finance is still readily available.  The restriction on credit in a counter-intuitive way has actually been a benefit to property investors. While it has restricted some investors purchasing property, by far the greater impact has been on property developers. Significant levels of presales are now required and this has meant that new stock is harder to bring to market. This has restricted the supply of properties, meaning that any excess supply will be soaked up more quickly. It also means that when the excess supply is taken up, that new supply will not be readily available, causing a rise in prices.

Rents are on the way up!

The last boom in Perth from 2004 – 2007 was not only a boom in property prices, but also a boom in rental prices. Rental prices have not moved significantly over the last few years. The vacancy rate was approximately 1% in 2007 before increasing to as high as 4.7% in 2010. Over the last 12 months the rental vacancy rate has declined significantly to be just over 3%. A balanced market is considered to be around a 3% vacancy rate, so we are seeing a return to a normal market. Just as the supply of properties for sale varies significantly by suburb, so does the vacancy rates per suburb. Our analysis indicates that some suburbs in Perth have vacancy rates of around 1% whereas others have vacancy rates as high as 9%.

Consequently we are seeing rental growth in a number of the suburbs where we manage property. The ability to increase rents is still selective and tenants are price sensitive, but we do expect the next few years to see rental returns increasing, which is great news for property investors.

Market Summary

After a period of underperformance, it certainly looks like a very promising period ahead for the Perth property market. With over $200 billion dollars of resource investment in Western Australia either in construction or planned, there will be significant flow on effects to the rest of the economy and hence property prices. We expect Perth to be the outperforming market over the next 1, 3 and 10 years in Australia, as the mining boom Mark 2 gets into full swing.

If you are seriously looking to build wealth through property then I suggest you contact me as soon as possible. By the time you read in the paper or hear on the news that the Perth market has returned to strong growth, you will have missed a reasonable amount of the market upturn and subsequent capital growth. We are already seeing savvy investors adding to their portfolios as they see the upturn coming, and some smart first time investors also taking advantage of the opportunities in the market.

This Newsletter has been kindly provided by www.MomentumWealth.com.au, if you would like to discuss any  matters arising from this newsletter or are interested in property investment or development, then call Mark Casey, a client of Mercia, on markc@momentumwealth.com.au or call  Momentum Wealth  on 9221 6399.